Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070342
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jul 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 84W north of 06N, moving 
westward around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted 
with this tropical wave.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 124W from 02N to 16N, moving 
quickly westward at around 15-20 kt. Any nearby convection is 
described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N85W to 07N90W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N90W to 09N120W, and from 08N125W to beyond
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 13N
between 115W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure near 35N140W
southeastward to off the coast of Baja California then to the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Recent scatterometer satellite data showed
moderate to fresh NE winds off the coast of Baja California north
of Cabo San Lazaro, between the ridge and troughs over northwest
Mexico. Seas in this area are 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate breezes
are noted elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas primarily in SW swell.
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active along the coast
of southern Mexico between Puerto Angel and Manzanillo.

For the forecast, the ridging will hold across the offshore 
waters of Baja California through Wed night, with the resultant 
gradient leading to moderate to fresh NW winds over these same 
waters, locally strong to the north of Punta Eugenia through Tue 
night. Moderate to fresh gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
will pulse at fresh to strong speeds at night into the mornings 
through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with seas to 
rough at times. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere, 
except increasing and pulsing to fresh to strong in the central 
and northern Gulf of California by the end of the week as the 
gradient tightens there. Fresh NW swell off California will push 
southward off Baja California Norte late Tue night into early 
Wed, continuing through Fri. Moderate seas are forecast 
elsewhere. 
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed a plume of fresh
NE to E gap winds persist across the Papagayo region and extend 
offshore to near 90W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally
fresh winds are elsewhere to the N of 09N. Moderate SE winds are
offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, where seas are 6-9 ft
in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder of 
the waters, along with 4-7 ft mainly in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E gap winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Papagayo region into early Thu, then moderate to 
fresh thereafter. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Panama through Tue night. Little change in winds is 
forecast elsewhere through the week. Cross equatorial SW swell 
will move through the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands through early Wed, with seas peaking around 9 ft. The 
combination of the southerly swell with shorter period seas 
associated with gap winds will allow combined seas to build to a 
peak of about 8 ft offshore of northern Central America Tue 
through Wed with mainly moderate seas otherwise. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A trough, the remnant of Douglas, is along 133W from 22N to 27N.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NE winds
within 60 nm west of this trough. Elsewhere, a broad ridge
dominates the waters north of 15N, supporting moderate NE winds
and 5-7 ft seas in a mix of N and SW swell. Fresh NE winds and
seas to 8 ft are also noted farther south ahead of the tropical
wave near 124W, specifically from 09N to 13N between 120W and
135W. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Long period
SW swell to 8 ft is reaching 08N between 90W and 130W. Combined
seas are 5-7 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the remnant trough of Douglas will continue 
drifting westward through the rest of the week. The ridge will 
build ESE through Wed night, with the gradient between it and 
the remnant Douglas trough leading to a solid area of fresh 
trades west of 120W along with seas of 7-8 ft. Large southerly 
swell with seas up to 9 ft will continue impacting the waters S 
of 06N through mid-week before gradually decaying. Large 
northerly swells off California will build seas to around 9 ft 
offshore Baja California Norte by mid-week, lingering through the
end of the work week. Meanwhile, the tropical wave will continue
moving westward with scattered moderate convection.

$$
Christensen