Hurricane Lala

000
WTPA42 PHFO 221435
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sat Aug 22 2026

The areal coverage of deep convection in association with Lala has 
been gradually decreasing over the past 12 to 18 h.  The latest 
subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from JTWC and PHFO are 
a consensus T4.0/65 kt.  Recent objective satellite intensity 
estimates range from 50-62 kt.  A 22/0905 UTC ASCAT-C overpass had 
wind vectors as high as 64 kt.  Given the degraded appearance on 
satellite imagery, but also taking into account the well-known 
low-bias in the ASCAT instrument at those wind speeds, the intensity 
is nudged downward to 70 kt for this advisory.  The 34-kt wind 
radii were expanded in some of the quadrants based on the ASCAT 
pass.

Lala appears to have made a short-term jog to the west-northwest and 
is also starting to decelerate, but the longer term motion is 
estimated to be northwestward, or 310 degrees at 9 kt.  Two mid- to 
upper-level ridges, one to the north and one to the west of Lala 
will cause the cyclone to slow down to a forward speed of around 5 
kt on Sunday and Monday while continuing northwestward, before it 
attempts to squeeze in between those two ridges in 3-5 days. The 
northwestward motion in 3-5 days will also be aided by an 
approaching upper-level trough well to the north of the system.  
There continues to be significant cross-track model spread in the 
3-5 day period.  The NHC forecast is slower and farther left 
compared to the previous NHC forecast and is close to an average of 
the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Simple Consensus 
(TVCN) models.

The dry air getting into the core of Lala has been the culprit for 
the recent weakening.  The shear is forecast to remain low through 
the forecast period.  By the time the mid-level troposphere moistens 
slightly in a couple of days, Lala will have crossed the 26C 
sea-surface temperature isotherm into cooler waters, and will 
continue to move into progressively cooler water after that.  Since 
upper-level temperatures will also cool down in a few days along 
Lala's path, only gradual weakening is forecast, and Lala could 
still be a tropical cyclone in 4-5 days.  Only very small changes 
have been made to the previous NHC forecast, which lies near the 
middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 30.5N 172.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 31.2N 173.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 31.9N 174.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 32.6N 174.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 33.2N 175.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  25/0000Z 34.0N 176.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 34.8N 176.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 36.5N 178.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 38.8N 179.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen